BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

[A0283]

Additional concept scenario

If you would list some observations as follows:

a. RUS and EGY experts officially stated earlier that no traces of explosives have been found on any of the examined victims (would be nice to have a link to an official statement, not an interview),

b. A loud NOISE at the end of the CVR recording, as officially stated today by the chairman of the investigation, he clearly does not use the word EXPLOSION,

c. No clear evidence (my impression– clearly not shared by quite a number of posters) of high velocity fragments or blast or flash on the outside of components and parts of the plane that are visible onpictures in the public domain, and certainly not many ‘possibles’ in this respect,

d. Amazingly ‘clean’ wreckage,

e. Break-up fracture lines include quite a few that are along what I call “production breaks”, where with an explosion you would expect multiple more ‘ragged’ edges, and with fatigue you would fractures further away from “production breaks”. This suggests structural failure ...

f. ...

What kind of scenario wouldb e able to cover this combination of ‘dots’.

An option might be a kind of very local, very high temperature event, weakening the structure or ‘flash through’,going from aft cargohold to the tail (via ducts?), leading to a growing overload situation, after some time causing a violent failure (triggers could be, pressure-differential exceeding a certain limit, or load caused by A/P1 induced step inclimb, or..), the violent nature of this causing the very loud noise, the chain of events proceeding so fast, that it leads to the loss of significant structural member(s) (for example pushing out the THS and APU and kicking out the rudder), a loss that instantly causes an irrecoverable loss of control, a combination which makes it impossible for the pilots to disengages A/P1 (high g’sand or surprise effect), aerodynamic loads then causing the subsequent fast break-up of the plane,

Some questions could then be:

i. What kind of event and/or product could lead to such an fast escalation within about 23 minutes of flight plus some additional time between pushback and takeoff, so say between 20-35 minutes, could that be Lithium-batteries or ...? And what would be the cause of cargo hold sensor (smoke/temperature) failures.

Hope someone can help me toget this scenario up to a more “probable” level.

Note: “Probable” not suggesting that this is THE only or even the most likely scenario.

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While i was writing this RTM Boy posted http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post9173575 covering the subject of in-flight fire. Not the same as my scenario, but recommended reading his parallel to mine.