Thanks for the kind words.
I originally envisioned a scenario like you describe with the tail collapsing downward, and that may still be the operative way that it failed. (Remember- we're all speculating with limited information!!) My reasoning for discounting that evolution are based on the following:
1. When the airplane isn't flying- I.E. when it is sitting on the ground, there is little or no stress from gravity. This effect functionally must be the same in flight, which is why it seems likely that aerodynamic forces were the cause of the failure at the aft bulkhead, as opposed to a resultant of the failure. Yes the HS is at a negative angle of attack- which is why a catastrophic failure of the forward attach point or jackscrew would result in a downward movement of the leading edge of the stab.
2. The CVR recording apparently ended with a bang right at the point of the failure (or tenths of a second later) which would be explained by the failure of the HS, the fracture of the fuselage, and the resultant departure of the tail- all of which would have happened in a few moments at the longest. A failure further forward moving rearward into the tail section seems more likely to take a more significant amount of time (as in seconds) then the previous scenario.
3. The posit that the explosion took out a wiring loom is impractical for a huge variety or reasons. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, just that it is extremely, extremely unlikely. It seems evident (to me at least) that the boxes were separated from the aircraft nearly instantly from the moment of failure.
The one thing I will say- and it is only an opinion, is that the hyperbolic response to the "bombing" of the plane seems really premature, and based on everything I'm seeing so far there is far more evidence to support a structurally catastrophic failure as opposed to a bomb. So despite the fact that I am arguing against the combined governments of the US, UK, and Russia, I'm a long way from having been shown anything remotely suggestive of a bomb. (Other than anonymously sourced suggestions with no evidence that an ISIL group called the mother ship to proudly declare that they bombed the plane- which is as self-serving and hence unlikely a valid source of real intelligence as I can imagine.)
Anyway it will be interesting to see where this goes.
Regards,
dce