Originally Posted by
AVR4000
It would be interesting if everyone who is convinced about a bomb could share their thoughts on the following:
1. The damaged vertical stabilizer.
2. The detached horizontal stabilizers.
3. The 25 seconds of FR24 data transmitted after the event.
4. The damages to the tail section with separated APU compartment.
I have a hard time to see how the tail section can be so damaged if a bomb detached it. Earlier bombings such as the destruction of a JAT DC-9 clearly shows that a tail section remains more or less intact if it separates due to an explosion in the cabin or cargo hold.
The damages to the tail is a strong indicator that something happened there and until images prove otherwise, the rear pressure bulkhead and/or stabilizer assembly continues to create questions.
A detached tail section (if we assume the fuselage broke apart behind the wings and in front of the rear cabin doors) would fall more or less in one piece with the stabilizers still attached.
It is also worth to mention the simple fact that different groups has been claiming responsibility for bombs even if the cause is something else. If there is an official statement from the investigation team about damages caused by a bomb blast, then there is little doubt but I have a strong suspicion that bomb speculations are a diversion from the true cause of the accident.
Edit: It is normal that a "bang" is heard on the CVR and I wouldn't pay too much attention to "breaking news" unless there is press conference with the investigative team where it is stated without a doubt that "analysis of the sound on the CVR confirm that it was an explosion rather than structural failure".
I'll have a go at that for you, two scenarios for a bomb which converge.
a) Bomb in rear baggage hold, large chunk of LH side fuselage hit LH HS sheering it off, also starts centre tank fire - stop
B) bomb in galley- ruptures RPB forces HS full down (vertical), LH HS sheers externally. HS screw jack assembly forced through top skin causing 2/3rd of VS to break away. RH HS and stump of LH VS now "flapping " around, then departs rearwards and upwards forcing the section of HS inside HS compartment downwards, this causes floor and skin of HS compartment to break away.
The apu may have detached as a result of the initial galley blast or as a result of the airflow once the HS comp ceased to exist, but it seems to have been undamaged in the air
The remaining rear section now has zero structural strength the top starts to "sag" putting stress on joints further fwd which coupled with the effect of a bomb in either location cause it to snap off just fwd of the rear doors. Time taken for total disintegration single figure seconds.
My only problem is the fire, A) would probably cause it immediately B) it would have to be caused by leakage as plane broke up and sparks from cables.
Re FR24 simple even when back end breaking up engines still powering front end so data continues to be transmitted albeit it may be dodgy due to rapid erratic movements of plane.