^^
You're spot on CM. I would add that I don't think its political...as a country we are either going to (try to) balance the books or we are not. Those political entities which are not so bothered about expenditure, don't exactly have defence high up their list!
I would also add that we need some innovative thinking here...pooled resources with our allies could be one option. In this instance a NATO MPA, force as has already been mentioned on pprune, would be worth a look at.
I'm not sure looking at a cheaper airframe is going to make that bigger difference to the overall cost of restoring the capability, so somebody needs to get there thinking caps on before this falls through the net forever.
And...
P.S. Don't shoot the messenger. I feel the same angst as you. We need an MPA.
...me too.