Shed, I think you confused LHR and BA in your first reply to me.
No, I didn't. BA can swap short-haul and long-haul slots around in-house, but LHR has a very active second-hand slot-trading market used by other carriers to accommodate lucrative opportunities.
the extra real estate you are talking about will not keep up with required growth. By the time the project is finished the airport may be over 35m pax, but space restricted.
I sincerely hope that you are correct and that we see MAN enjoy the scale of medium-term traffic growth you envisage. Certainly, 2016 is shaping up as a boom year. But the reality of the economic cycle is such that we can expect to experience at least one more recessionary phase within the next ten year period, and given the overheated debt markets it could be a stinker. And oil prices won't stay at $45bbl indefinitely either; make hay while the sun shines! However, if you are correct and demand does soar beyond expectations, remember that MAN can activate its shelved plans to significantly expand T3 to the East and North. And in practical terms it should be possible to do this work concurrently with the existing TP if necessary, as most of the land required is outside the key operational areas. I personally don't expect this to be needed so quickly, but I'll be delighted if it is and its good to know that the contingency exists if required.
the largest element of the capacity increase will be the addition of the new piers.
But keep in mind that the very large T2 extension to the West uses the piers model also. MAG's plans call for these to be brought on stream to accommodate existing demand before (smaller) older sections of the complex are withdrawn for development in sequence.
I would be interested in views on which carriers will go where in the post expansion world.
I think decisions at this level are still a long way out. Five years from now, one or two of our familiar names may have merged, other carriers could join or swap alliances, and hopefully there will be some new names in the frame too. Apart from the obvious, determined by the location of US pre-clearance facilities for example, it isn't advisable to micro-manage airline terminal distribution so far ahead.
By the way, thanks to all who have addressed my query regarding EasyJet's programme.