Very interesting summary, LAX.
Just a couple of observations / refinements.
- Whilst you do mention DXB in your list of increases, it is worth emphasising what a large increase this could be. According to Seljuk's post No.3114 [17 Oct] a fourth daily Emirates schedule is proposed as EK29/30 operated by B77W, and EK19/20 is expected to remain a 2-class A380 operation into Summer 2016. If confirmed, these changes add over 500 round-trip seats per day to the MAN schedule. Put another way, this increase offers approximately double the capacity of the new Hainan and Shaheen long-haul services put together.
- As with Austrian A/L, the Iberia Express schedule to MAD also started very late in the S2015 season and will be predominantly incremental to S2016 (all the way through to September).
- Brussels Airlines is adding another daily rotation to Brussels, though we will need to check whether this continues through S2016 season.
- We must also consider drags on growth, and the good news here is that there aren't many at this stage. The very damaging Monarch Airlines cutbacks have now worked their way through the calendar and will not offset growth in the monthly stats going forward. The loss of Virgin Little Red and BMIR will also have worked through the calendar fully by late Spring 2016, clearing the way for better Summer percentage growth.
- For the last few years, the inexorable decline of air services between MAN and London have seen progressively less capacity offered each Summer. This has been a major drag on MAN's growth. But S2015 looked like the final plunge with the combination of BA cutbacks and Little Red's withdrawal. The S2015 MAN-LHR Shuttle frequency leaves little scope for further capacity cutting unless BA were to throw in the towel completely.
- There are some other cuts to consider - Air France/KLM and Swiss have cut capacity, FlyBe has trimmed some routes (but added to others). But across the board, capacity upgrades are significantly outpacing cutbacks for S2016 at this stage. Of course, service withdrawals often happen at short notice and with minimal publicity, but fingers crossed MAN can avoid another MON/VIR L Red/BMR shocker this time around.
- You are ahead of me with your forecast of new routes by VIR/DAL and EZY. Presumably they will need to be announced and opened for bookings soon if they are happening. Are you aware of any timescale? I've already booked four of my own flights for S2016 and will soon add to this ... I'm sure I'm not alone. If these carriers want to maximise bookings they need to be making their full programmes known or the early-bookers won't take them into consideration.
So far S2016 is looking very strong for MAN. Is that a half-full glass I see before me? ;-)