Looks like we're reading the same material. (Yes, that article was from last year. Took me awhile to find it.) The point being, what you read today, may not be the result you see tomorrow. Certainly last years prophecy of a price rebound was to be questioned. For me, that's hindsight.
The conventional 'wisdom' suggests things could bottom out around $20/barrel. Really? 50% of what I read conflicts with that prediction, so what's my take away? Continue reading, I guess. I looked at a chart yesterday that shows the average oil price won't get above $60/barrel till closer to 2030. It's all rubbish to me. What if they're wrong? They might be right. But, what if some event or events (Black Swan) play into things? Which is likely. Allow for that possibility and others and all those wonderful charts, facts, predictions, guesses are out the window. 10 to 15 years out is nothing more than an imaginary future at best. Like you said, a prediction.
As long as people continue to spend, it creates demand for oil. If a 2% supply over demand is accurate, that spells trouble no matter what we might think the price per barrel will do next month or next summer. That in itself will force the price up. If any low supply-high demand economic theories are to be believed. I'll take a look to see what the supply-demand ratio is today.
Willie
Last edited by Willie Everlearn; 26th Oct 2015 at 18:47.