Willie I think you're underestimating the changes taking place in the oil & gas industry.
Saudi Arabia is dumping oil at cheap prices not because of choice, but because they are forced to. They are running budget deficits of over 20% annually. They'll turn into another Venezuela if this situation continues on for many years!
Oil will
not return to $150/barrel any time soon, barring some massive unforeseen geo-political event. That's because oil is facing pressures from both the supply and demand sides:
- While the Saudis will succeed in killing a lot of shale production in US & Canada, the fact remains that most US shale producers can make profit at $60/barrel, and some shale fields (like the Bakken shale) can be profitable at under $30/barrel. This puts an effective cap on the price of oil.
- Any loss from shale oil declines will be made up by Iranian oil coming online soon as sanctions are being lifted, so there will be plenty of supply both OPEC and non-OPEC countries for the foreseeable future
- From the demand side, the economic weakness in China, etc., is forecast to persist for years (China's GDP growth is nearing a 25-year low)
- Further reducing demand for oil, this year for the first time in history the majority of new energy capacity is coming from renewables. In many parts of the world, the price of solar & wind energy is already cheaper than energy from oil.
Airlines don't order planes by reading brochures. Those penny-pinching bean-counters who run airlines would buy the CSeries in a heartbeat if it means more profit to them. Yet no one has placed a new order in well over a year now, and Bombardier needs hundreds of new orders just for the program to survive.