The dutch experts worked all the way from the holes in the cockpit walls back. First they determined the approximate point of detonation and the orientation of the missile at that point in time . For this step, the detonation simulation was used to get the position and orientation, which gave the best fit to the observed ricochet traces and hole distribution.
The detonation point was a little high, left and in front of the cockpit, and the orientation, which is essential for determining the area of origin, was a small angle to the low and to the right side.
The trajectory could not be and has not been exactly reproduced. Starting from the detonation point in space, direction and speed, allowing for a certain uncertainty in those 6 parameters, and also allowing for some uncertainties concerning all the elements belonging to the missile, a pretty large area of possible launch points has been determined, more or less everything right and sufficiently in front of the flight path. This was done by simulating many launches whith a special software, while varying the launch location, launcher orientation and other factors, and then taking the area, from wich launches with the observed missile orientation at detonation point where possible.
If the missile had been fired from a point less in front and more lateral, it would have had a considerably larger lateral angle at the detonation point, as it is known to have been designed to follow a constant angle approach.
This seems reasonable. The report seems to me very well made and thorough, BTW.
Last edited by dlen; 21st Oct 2015 at 23:40.