@ExDubai
Today they also killed the iconic CL-415 water bomber with the
closure of their North Bay facility, citing no sales and production activity.
We're also hearing today that Bombardier now intends to pitch the CSeries to Embraer.
@Willie Everlearn
The CS100 has NO direct competition. The A319, A320 and Neo are used by you and others for argument sake and nothing more. So, there’s no other practical reason for even mentioning A or B in comparison to the CSeries without differentiating.
The CS100 is a big loser right now. With just 53 orders, it accounts for only 20% of the CSeries order book. Bombardier is not going to survive on the bottom-priced 20%. The vast majority of CSeries orders are for the CS300 which competes with products from "A" and "B".
Hence the comparison is appropriate.
The CS100 made sense when it was first pitched in 2004. It was supposed to be the size to "fill the gap". But the market has changed since then. Now the CS100 is in "no man's land". It's too big for the regionals, yet too small for the mainline carriers which want larger planes.
Aircraft sales are made months in advance of airshows and airshows used as merely a forum to ‘announce’ sales.
I've walked the grounds of Le Bourget by invitation of the French government, so I know how these shows work. The bottom line is, they announced zero sales -- and have not announced any sales for the past year.
Republic are still holding these aircraft positions according to the last thing I read on it. Seems to me they could get a decent price on their white tails or even on aircraft leases. Don’t assume Republic will automatically cancel their order just because they no longer own Frontier.
All of Republic's orders are for the CS300, which they cannot fly for the mainlines due to current union contracts.
So about the only way they can fly those CS300s is if they create a brand new LCC to replace Frontier. At this point, that's a long shot.
Republic has no incentive to cancel their orders right away. Remember that we're already
past Republic's original delivery start date. Each new delay from Bombardier plays into Republic's hands in terms of any cancelation fees.
And if it is Bombardier which ends up canceling the CSeries, then not only Republic doesn't have to pay anything, they will get their deposit back.
So they're just going to wait it out until the last moment. It doesn't mean they intend to take any deliveries.
It may surprise you to learn that after LeBourget, European bankers were so impressed with the CSeries that they approached IFC with a new business proposition for financing their CSeries purchases. That deal is no longer in jeopardy. I guess you haven’t read that yet, eh?
Ha! The financiers told IFC they will provide financing IF (and that's a big IF) Ilyushin can find NEW non-Russian ("European") operators willing to buy the CSeries.
Which means they're NOT willing to finance IFC's current order. And why should they? IFC's current order is for airlines like UTAir-Ukraine and Moscow's VIM which are struggling right now with the ruble and various sanctions.
But, the price of oil will go back up. Right? Greed will see to that.
Eventually. But unless we have another 9/11 type event, cheap oil will persist for
years.
That's because oil for delivery as far as 2023 is already
price-locked in the futures market at under $64/barrel.
Bombardier as we know it might be long gone by then.
Can they still survive? Of course. But Bombardier management has to make tough choices and time is ticking.