Whatever American official claimed that the Russian incursion into Turkish airspace was deliberate ... I find that claim extraordinary. It is far more likely to have been a modest nav error. The Turks appear to have responded in a professional and restrained fashion. (Well played, Turkish Air Force!)
I recall a few "close to the line" incidents along the Iran Iraq border between our jets and the Iranian folks watching the airspace. Each of them was one of those small goofs (and in both cases tied to a particular holding pattern a tanker was maintaining not far from the airspace limits) and handled via radio comms ... with one ending up in a fairly vociferous protest that ended up in our defense attaché's office.
I also recall some Pakistani F-16's scrambling against our aircraft near the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, even though we were allegedly working together and they were given a copy of our ATO so that they'd know when to expect us. (The DAO in Pakistan had to deal with those
's on a daily basis, our HQ only sometimes).\
My point is: the Turks and Russians have lots of ways to avoid something like this getting worse, and have lots of ways of managing/handling it.
This won't lead to much of anything beyond a few nasty notes back and forth between military staffs and embassies.