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Old 2nd Oct 2015, 22:27
  #472 (permalink)  
Shed-on-a-Pole
 
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Some here are thinking far too parochially. We see a vexatious belief that the transfer of a certain air route must be the result of underhand dealing or a conspiracy against LPL in favour of MAN etc. This is not how things work in the real world. We need to think 'big picture overview' not 'petty local rivalry'.

Examine the evolution of EasyJet and Ryanair as corporate entities. Both started off small, avoiding busier airports, and carved a niche from nothing with very low prices being their main selling point. In the early days, EasyJet flew from LTN and LPL with B737's which had a large telephone number adorning the fuselage such that bookings would avoid traditional higher-cost sales channels. Ryanair flew to places most people had never heard of and amazed traditional thinkers by filling B737's between city-pairs which were considered unthinkable just a decade earlier. Nowadays, we are routinely unsurprised when an airline announces schedules on a 180-seat airliner between Doncaster and Wroclaw (for example). Just pause and think about that for a moment.

But business models evolve as companies grow. We saw it first with EasyJet. As the company grew rapidly and gained market recognition, it developed the confidence and financial clout to take on traditional legacy carriers from some of Europe's 'fortress' big city airports. Having made strongholds out of certain secondary UK airports such as LTN, LPL, NCL, BFS, BRS, EasyJet was suddenly becoming a force in cities such as Geneva, Nice and Berlin. Now, aside from their huge operation dominating LGW, we see them as the dominant carrier at Milan (MXP). They base aircraft in Paris and Amsterdam. And of course, at Manchester. Going head-to-head with the traditional legacy short-hauls. Some of the early bases such as LPL, NCL, EMA have inevitably suffered as a consequence of this process.

Ryanair stuck with second and third-level airports much longer. Indeed, many of these formerly obscure names such as Hahn, Charleroi, Bergamo, Niederrhein, Modlin and Torp will likely remain a part of the Ryanair culture for years to come. But at Ryanair too change is happening. Ryanair's ambition is to secure 25% of the European short-haul market. To achieve this, they can no longer avoid first-level European gateways. We are already seeing this process in action.

Ryanair is happy with its hugely-successful London bases at STN and LTN. They have sufficient market penetration from these to not worry unduly about LGW or LHR. But just look at other key cities. DUB is a special case - dominated by RYR from the early days by reason of its heritage. But Ryanair is moving into Barcelona en masse, at the expense of Girona and Reus. They're about to base aircraft at Milan Malpensa ... Bergamo must be very worried. And Brussels ... Ryanair are now appearing at Zaventem, which can only be terrible news for Charleroi in the long-term. At Lisbon, Ryanair is muscling in on TAP's home turf. And they're expanding at Madrid's main airport too. Then there is one more larger airport which Ryanair has targeted for similar penetration ... Manchester ... now upto eight based units and still growing.

Ryanair's moves on first-level airports does have implications elsewhere. BRU growth will hurt CRL. MXP growth will hurt BGY. BCN growth has already devastated GRO / REU. And MAN growth is impacting LPL. But this is not due to a conspiracy against LPL in particular, or underhand dealings from Manchester Airport (MAG). It is symptomatic of a wider strategy to compete with the established legacy carriers on key city-pairs from their home-turf. Exactly as EasyJet has done before them. And network changes are not the only visible sign of this evolution. EasyJet is now perceived as a natural choice for business travellers, offering service little different from that of Air France, SAS, Lufthansa or BA. Meanwhile, at Ryanair, we are also seeing the first signs of the move upmarket. A friendlier image is being promoted, allocated seating has been introduced, the confrontational attitudes and the 'fines' for outsized baggage and incorrectly-printed boarding cards have been toned down. Further innovations such as interlining are being openly discussed.

So the move of certain routes from LPL to MAN (just as from GRO to BCN, BGY to MXP, CRL to BRU, PIK to GLA etc.) is part of a wider business strategy. It is not driven by the local considerations that we residents perceive. These are strategic company-level policy shifts, the sort we see in all large and growing businesses. This doesn't happen because of a bust-up with an exec at LPL or a tenner incentive from an exec at MAN. Besides, launch incentives from airport businesses such as LPL and MAN are open to all carriers. LPL has enjoyed considerable success in this regard over recent months with several new carriers gracing the departure board. It is normal business. LPL recently won a contract with traditional MAN customer CSA - are we to suppose that was a vindictive conspiracy as well?

Looking at Bratislava specifically, why this particular route to MAN and why now? Well, FRatSTN has got it. The relationship between Vienna and Bratislava Airports is similar to that between LPL and MAN. They are geographically close together, and the catchment areas overlap to a considerable degree. Austrian Airlines (Star Alliance) has just launched daily MAN-VIE. EasyJet has announced plans to launch MAN-VIE schedules. The fight is on. Meanwhile, Jet2, which operated MAN-VIE upto 3x weekly, appears set to withdraw and redeploy its aircraft to other routes. Jet2's limited MAN-VIE operation was not a big deal for Ryanair's LPL-BTS route. But the arrival of Austrian and EasyJet on the scene certainly is. And that is why Ryanair is making its move.

Don't think small-time. Don't think LPL v MAN petty rivalry. Think fundamental strategic planning at the HQ's of some of Europe's largest and fastest-growing airline groupings. And take note of this too ... Wizz and Blue Air are now pitching up at airports such as BHX and GLA. That too is a shift from early destinations such as Doncaster, Teesside, Prestwick and Coventry. MAG may be thinking it is time to pitch to those two again! Don't take it personally.
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