GAI2022 is the MoD policy on events and airshows. It was due renewal in Oct 2011 and earlier this year when last I looked, it still had not been renewed. The reason was because there was no appetite by the AFBSC to participate in airshows which are perceived as a financial burden even though Cosford and Waddington operated in profit and Leuchars benefited from a generous contribution from the Scottish Office.
The writing was on the wall for airshows, and the closure of Leuchars played perfectly into their hands. There was no chance of an RAF sponsored air show taking over from Leuchars. Mixed signals were spouted after Waddngton had been suspended. For a while it appeared that alternatives had been considered and dismissed including Scampton. The terminal outlook was muddied by comments that an alternative was still under review. I go back to the 2011 GAI which after four years remained 'under review'.
The RAF are in partnership with RIAT to celebrate the RAF Centenary. RAFAT must be under threat as the Hawk T1 reaches end of life, and my guess is that 2018 will be the final year. The future for other events and teams is anyones guess. Personnel and opinions go through cycles of change but for sure the last few years have seen an appetite to erase air show commitment. MAA/CAA regulations may yet see some events untenable. The Risks associated with Aviation Normal Operating Hazards are no longer acceptable. Offshore displays which are perceived as the least dangerous have many associated hazards, notably birdstrikes risk and pleasure craft venturing into the safety area. The precedent was set when a Red Arrow hit a yacht mast.