I'd say the chance of retaining the agreements in their current form is pretty close to zero. That assumption is based on what seems to be an open goal being presented to management. Of course it will be dressed up possibly as a new agreement but the reality will be serious dilution of existing agreements.
I wouldn't say Balpa are scaremongering. They would be duty bound to inform their members of what lies ahead. The job of representation would continue no matter who holds a recognition agreement. If anything the pressure will now be on the opposition because they must you now realise what the company are really up to. They will be held to account by their own members if they achieve recognition at the expense of their members terms and conditions. You should be able to predict what's going on based on management comms. If they have stopped short of saying that your agreements will be subject to full transfer then you've got problems. Good luck.