Whilst on the subject of ETOPS, what are Jet2 going to do to keep on seasonal USA flights, after the departure of the 752? Now I know there's a good 6+ years left in them yet, but what then?
From what I can see, they've got 2 options;
1. Buy Smaller
2. Buy Bigger
Straight over (without no north routing) from NCL (the most eastern) to EWR is just over
2,900nm.
So, for arguments sake, lets say the route deviates by 300nm. That's around
3,200nm, without room for diversion/missed app etc.
At the moment, the max range of the 757-200 is around
3,900-4,000nm - Enough to sufficiently do EWR from the UK, with room to divert.
However, the max range of the 737-800 is around
3,100-3,200nm - Certainly not sufficient for any trip across the pond without stopping.
So exploring option 1:
Buy Smaller
The best option in order to keep a standard fleet is undoubtedly the
737-700ER.
It has a max range, with aux tanks, of around
5,600nm, a much smaller fuel cost/mile and a list price of around $10 million less than the list price of 737-800. Now we know that Jet2 have negotiated a
'significant discount' off list prices recently, so lets not really consider the price for now. The downside of course is the sacrifice of around 40 seats from the 738, and around 80 seats from the 752.
Exploring option 2:
Buy Bigger
In terms of buying bigger, there is a bit more in the way of choice of aircraft. But, in order to keep the same fleet type there are only 3 options; the 767, 777, and 787.
An aircraft like the 777 is completely illogical, on many grounds for an airline like Jet2. So that leaves us with either the 767, or the 787. There are hundreds more 767s around the world than 787s, and as the aircraft model is ageing, the list price is depreciating. A recent drop in oil prices means a little less pressure on fuel efficiency also. The good news is, unlike the 757, the 767 is still in production. meaning Jet2 can buy either young, or if not brand new. The max range of the 763, is around
5,900nm, an extra
2,000nm on top of what the 752 can achieve. A common type rating is shared between both the 757 and the 767, meaning less in transition costs as well. The 767-300ER has a maximum all economy seating total of
350 seats - that's
85% more than the 738, and
50% more than the 752.
Of course any investment in new aircraft means the aircraft will have to earn its keep. In peak summer, Jet2 could easily fill a 763ER(WL) full of pax on the bucket and spade routes.
For example, S16 sees 4 flights a day from Manchester to Palma during the week on a mix of aircraft. Combining those 4 sectors onto 2 would save a massive amount of money, and could even mean expansion on other routes with existing aircraft.
Personally, I think buying bigger is probably more logical for Jet2, both on the summer bucket and spades (TFS,PMI,ALC,DLM), and on the New York (or possibly other USA winter destinations) flights.
