It's rather naïve of you to think I don't read a good number of the financials, annual reports, and investment material on this company on a daily basis, both positive and negative, but alright, let's agree that, IF BBD management ARE as unaware as you aware individuals like to imply, of the realities facing BBD, then I agree, they really ARE in serious trouble and not just with the CS. Especially if they aren't or haven't taken steps to change certain realities.
I happen to believe they ARE taking those positive steps.
While I appreciate that we all look at this company from different positions, here's what I think most don’t appreciate about BBD.
The last 9 months have been very positive for BBD. New management has taken a number of positive steps, both small and large, while implementing necessary and some tough changes. That positive incline may be shallow at the moment but it is at least moving upward. Some of the things I see as positive are:
1. The company IS burning through a lot of cash. At this point in time, that's not a surprise nor is it news. But, this reality will likely continue for an indefinite period moving forward. That isn’t necessarily a good thing, I agree, except for the fact that they are committed to the CS program and will see it through to completion and delivery. In my estimation, that takes a lot of guts, financial resolve and commitment on the part of everyone at that company. A positive.
2. The CS will undoubtedly be certified soon. As an old guy, with a variety of type ratings accumulated over my career, including Airbuses and Boeings. They were amazing aircraft to fly. But the CS, in my opinion, is well ahead of some of these A and B types, and I would certainly hope to fly it one day.
3. Swiss will receive their first aircraft shortly after certification. (Swiss are not the only customer for this aircraft as someone previously posted above). Lufthansa continues to be a very active player in the development of this aircraft and they happen to own or manage a few carriers that just happen to be a very good fit for this aircraft. Lost sales to Embraer or Mitsubishi is merely a cyclic thing. Sales were likely lost due to the CS delay in certification as much as anything.
4. Whether you know it or not, the Paris airshow was a positive for BBD, undoubtedly not the sizeable POSITIVE many outsiders would like to have seen (including myself) through announced sales, but it has generated a lot more interest in the aircraft which should result in some of those interested parties signing up for a few of these aeroplanes.
5. They delayed the Learjet 85, which was a god send, and IMHO their Learjet division should be sold off before their Transportation division, it's a lemon and would put some bucks in the kitty to keep them afloat.
6. They've delayed the 7000 and 8000 at a time when new corporate aeroplanes sales are stagnant.
7. Performance and Range are better than predicted.
8. MRJ and E2 have serious Scope problems with their Regional Jets. The CS is NOT a regional jet and is ideal for the 130-150 pax segment, flown by the legacy carriers to take back flying lost to their Regional partners.
9. Thank gawd they have no intention of 'discounting' the aircraft just to sell their souls to get a few more units sold. A and B will kill their resale market when the MAX and NEO have been in operation for a few years thereby pissing off their existing customers. Good luck with that.
10. Fuel prices will rise again making it that much more of an attractive option.
We’ll see in about a year’s time where the CS is in terms of positive or negative industry impact. As for me, I like what I see but I’m not going to rush out and buy lots of stock right now. I'll wish them luck on the rocky road ahead because it's human nature for others to hope they fail.
Regional airlines are on the decline and both Embraer and Mitsubishi are in a very precocious position having bet on the relaxation of scope clauses. As the pilot shortage bites harder and harder into available pilot resources, ALPA and many others will be much firmer in their position on Regional Airline scope. Making the CS look an even more attractive option.
I find it interesting most of the negative posts here are from fellow Canadians...
Willie