Originally Posted by
porterhouse
Rather than interpreting the data yourself I suggest reading the conclusion part of the article written by the same D.Griffin on the subject of this drift analysis and how it relates to the current search area.
I know what David G. thinks about the information conveyed by a unique debris: alone, it does not allow to reestimate the priority area via simulations (even if they include currents, waves/Stokes drift and winds interactions) given the uncertainties, but as such, does not conflict with it (priority area established by Inmarsat). I can also see that these are expert opinions, highly valuable as such (and the CSIRO simulations are probably among the best for this task), illustrated by observational data (the drifters) but the simulation results are so scarcely quantified.. In a 1st time, I wanted to try to decode the Global Drifter Program database to to see how much undrogued buoys have reached La Réunion, whatever the season, over 30 years... and to visualize them. Because it is also a good way to check for the representativity of simulations, the Van Sebille's empirical model in that matter (is it able to reproduce the trajectories of the undrogued drifters even if has not been designed for this). Maybe I should have kept this for me.