Ken - to be clear I didn't assume anything in your F16 video. Actually by the time I got home to view things many posts had been deleted here and you'd been chatting about it on a different thread which kind of made any input irrelevant.
I'm real sorry to say this but ultimately I have no idea the point you are trying to make with this because frankly in your F-16 example loop, half roll/half loop (Split S in USA) is regardless because the looping element ended with the once fully working aircraft in a million pieces. I think you are trying to make a horse race out of nothing tbh.
You are of course very welcome to your own opinion on the figure being flown (which by the way I didn't read it was a 1/4 clover.. I can see with my own eyes that it looks like a 1/4 clover) , you are very welcome to suggest I am wrong. It would of course help if you would give a view or opinion as to why you think I'm wrong - with specific reference to what you can see but either way its pretty far from WILD speculation. Even in your F16 case you enjoy so much mistaking the half looping element for a loop is not really WILDLY wrong!
Anyway read this:-
https://assets.digital.cabinet-offic...009_G-HURR.pdf
See page 31 point 4.1 and I guess any AAIB interim report will be able to give absolute clarity as to what the sequence was. I'll leave it there.