The drift study linked by AirLandSeaMan (24th Aug 2015, 15:58) is from the same company that did the Bayesian (conditional probability) analysis that was instrumental in finding AF447.
From the BEA's summary of sea search operations:
http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....11.2012.en.pdf
"The BEA asked METRON to analyse the results of previous searches in order to produce a probability map for the location of the wreckage. METRON used the SAROPS(21) tool and a distribution based on studies by the BEA and its Russian counterpart (MAK) focusing on nine aircraft accidents that had occurred in cruise.
An updated distribution of probabilities of the presence of the wreckage was produced taking into account the efficiency of the sonar searches during phases 2 and 3, and the unsuccessful searches in phase 1. The lack of results from the air and sea searches conducted from 1 to 6 June 2009 was also taken into account.
On 20 January 2011, the BEA published the results of the METRON study on its website. It mentioned an area where there was a high probability of the wreckage being present near the centre of the circle.
The summary of the analysis of the results from the previous phases, reinforced by the findings of the METRON study, helped define the search strategy for phase 4. This involved a systematic search starting from the centre of the circle, with the exception of areas already explored using sonars during phases 2 and 3, for which a re-exploration with the same type of resources was deemed unnecessary."
That study is here (5.8 MB):
http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....h.analysis.pdf
Good track record.