Why the East River - what about JT @ DPS
Instead of looking only at the "Sully ditching" as an indicator of how an aircraft might survive a ditching, consider the "Lionair landing" at DPS the other year (still haven't seen any final report for that one either).
But that was a largely-uncontrolled ditching, in landing configuration into a disturbed sea (refer tropical storm at the time of the incident).
I am not 100% certain of the details but seem to remember flaps as still being attached, just engines missing.
I would just about guarantee a nose well up attitude as he hit the water, especially with the sea wall filling the windshield.