AirLandSeaMan- thank you very much. The sequence of events you listed from the simulated fuel exhaustion is enlightening, and fits well enough with the Inmarsat data and flaperon condition to make it the most probable scenario at present. I think it was 9 days before they even STARTED searching for debris off Australia, enough time for it to disperse and sink. Nothing was ever found from the 1979 Varig Boeing 707-323C disappearance 110 nm ENE from Tokyo, for example, a much easier and more timely search.