I'd like to get some discussion and opinion on the BHD position for EI now that EI is part of IAG.
I've been quite vocal for some time and had an opinion that EI would have a long run at BHD especially on the LHR route. Despite its relative strong cost base position (crew base etc.) at BHD, I now cannot see many reasons why EI will remain on the BHD LHR route and by inference at BHD. Here's why;
1. BHD LHR with EI is not bookable still for summer 2015, despite all other EI London routes being for sale on the website.
2. There is overcapacity on the BHD LHR route and with IAG's primary interest being connecting traffic and business travellers, I can see IAG wanted to consolidate the business on the route to a strong BA at T5. It is also unlikely that EI would move to T5, which is already utilised to capacity.
3. EI will remove 2 319's from the fleet early next year and that may necessitate the use of 320 on BHD LHR (though this prob not a big issue as 2 319s will still be available), which is based on current performance not needed.
4. There will likely be a new entrant on LGW - Belfast Market, and if it is to the BHD market it will pressurise EI position. If it is easyJet and that is where my money would be on, I could see EI abandoning the route.
5. IAG have strong leverage against the airport at this point, and which could result in EI being free to be released from any time bound contractual arrangements that may be in place.
6. Vueling could pick up the seasonal sun operations, and negate the need for a crew base for EI at BHD...
Without getting into the debate about which Belfast Airport is better, which is at best a futile debate, I pose the following scenario... with no alternative option by way of airline to serve Belfast Heathrow market; IAG and BA are in a very strong position to switch airports in Belfast with limited impact on passenger numbers. Hitherto BHD competing airlines meant that BHD was likely to keep both as BA wouldn't have deflected out to BFS as EI would have stole a march on them at BHD. But not no alternative means that BA has huge leverage, and BFS albeit not as convenient for business pax etc. it is the only route to London Heathrow. This would mean a 24 hr. airport for BA, and a proposition that BFS could invest heavily into the majorly impact its smaller rival. This move into IAG could be real game changer from the perspective of the Belfast Airports.
Watch this space.... any views on the above?