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Old 21st Aug 2015, 06:52
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glofish
 
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There's the real conundrum. The UAE is heavily dependant on Abu Dhabi's financial strenght mainly based on oil revenue. Dubai is a subsidiary Emirate who wanted to escape that dependency, because of its oil fields drying out, the main pillars being its airline, the tourism industry and real estate. This backfired big time during the 2008 crisis. They avoided a complete sell out by the thinnest margin being able to retain control of its main asset EK. Today's strategy can be described as a all or nothing. TC's megalomania reflects HH's vision of a World air dominance via DWC and a killer megafleet of 380ies, strangling the competition. This depends on 1. Europe continuing to heavily subsidise the manufacturing of this very expensive hardware. 2. The oil price remaining low as this fleet is somewhat fuel greedy.
Abu Dhabi however is caught between its strategy of low oil price to fight the West on its strive to push expensive oil production for independence and the need of oil income due their need to subsidise the unproductive locals. The way it goes right now, according to some experts, gives the GCC states some 7 years to go broke. So prepare for a oil price hike around 2021. Then EK will turn terminally ill and will be taken over by the neighbours. They seem to adopt another strategy, to come back to the thread, the one QF seems to adopt as well. Smaller less greedy airframes with huge reach, more flexibility in route length and airport facilities.
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