Seriously? We've been here before in Desert Storm.
If a no-fly zone was established there would be platforms watching their base electronically and visually; they'd be monitored from start-up to taxi and the information passed to AWACS and an airborne CAP and they'd be locked on their take-off roll and be lucky to reach 500ft and the airfield perimeter.
Their only hope would be, as in Desert Storm, to scramble in radio silence making a run for Iranian airspace; but seeing as, instead of a few miles, they have to cross the whole of Iraq, I doubt they'd make it......
Caveat: Assumes the US would be involved, but if they're not - the chances of a no-fly zone being established as zero anyway.