I always thought Georgia was his toe dipping time, and we failed miserably in our response, Perhaps if the response had been more robust, putting NATO troops on the ground at the same time as returning their peace keeping troops and confronting Putin, things might well have been different now, I do feel sorry for them and feel the west who encouraged them let them down big time.
It would have shown Putin that invading his neighbours was a no no and would have hopefully have put paid to his future plans, having allowed him to get away with Georgia he was confident that even though accords had been signed to protect the Ukraine, the west would do squat, there was a lot of rhetoric and talk of ramping up sanctions, but what it needed in those early days was Nato troops on the ground in the Ukraine...
Just my view...