Originally Posted by
Wingman1000
Not as a capacity height, but more as a demand height:
- CityJet has reduced its operation over the last years - are they ever expanding again in the future?
- how profitable is Flybe's operation in LCY?
- what other flag carriers or smaller independent carriers are willing and have the right aircraft to operate to LCY?
Aaaaarrrggh! I had typed a looooonng response to this but my phone died at an inappropriate moment!
So, CityJet...seem to be performing better on their reduced operations...albeit the relatively low oil price helps (with their gas guzzlers). At some point though they will have to re-fleet in order to continue operation. By selling off some of their RJs and leasing them back they have bought themselves time to make a sound decision. In fact they are also opening a new route (Cork?) to supplement their remaining high-yielding routes. So not all doom and gloom.
FlyBe....mixed bag I guess. Some routes are doing very well (Edinburgh is due to go 7 rotations a day in winter, Belfast City also appears to be very busy). Dublin was busy but BA CityFlyer have upped their game (as have CityJet) hence the FlyBe demise.
Speaking of BA CityFlyer...huge increase in movements, and word also of more E190s to come? (Will need crews of course!) Now the dominant carrier at LCY. Not sure that the Greek routes will return next summer but who knows?
Of the other flag-carriers, Lufthansa, Swiss, Alitalia, Luxair, VLM, etc., I can't say for certain but the opportunities of E-jets, E2-jets, SSJs, C-series must be enticing.
Having said that, there is probably a good market in DH8D and NextGen DH8s/ATRs to provide affordable options. The airport will no doubt be keen to accomodate 50+ pax aircraft to increase its non-aero profit percentage (LCY remains one of the few airports where "aero" margins outweigh "non-aero" but for how long?).
The clientele remains largely the same, business travellers who appreciate the short check-in times before onward journey - even the "leisure" routes seem to be occupied by the same people.
So, without planning (mayoral!) permission I'd expect passenger figures to top out around 6m pax/year as the combined effects of slightly larger aircraft types and punctuality become a feature, with east apron/taxiway/terminal expansion (and larger aircraft types) I'd expect that figure to rise to around 8m pax/year.
With approval I'd be surprised if PdG didn't become a hub to serve, much like Frankfurt & Amsterdam, together with business-only routes direct to Dubai, Mosow and U.S. east coast.
All in all, whether permission for expansion is granted or not, I suspect LCY is a relative cash-cow for an investor...whether it will realise the £2b price tag is, in my opinion, dependent on the liklihood of approval for expansion. An investor with a pessimistic outlook might look at £1.5b as providing a realistic return on the investment, an optimist might look at £2b and think that was a good price. In reality I suspect, if timescales go to plan before the planning decision, the airport will go for somewhere between the two.