Seems like its easy to make money if the incumbent pulls out and gives you the route+pax.
Seems like its hard to make money if you have displace an incumbent.
Read some of the comments in the HKG papers, there's no love for a monopolistic airline system thats currently the status quo in HKG. If Australia was smart they would limit further expansion of CX's rights into this country, much like what would happen if the shoe was on the other foot.