But I didn't have you teaching me, or I'd no doubt know the right answer :-)
You are doing quite well in your ideas of where to look.
But here is my suggestions to make things easier.
There are really only two types of water surface.
(1) A water surface with a viable surface caused by wind...or in some cases debris or plant material visible.
In which case you should be looking at the surface at the point at which you plan to flare ( Round out. )
Not only does this give you the best visual clues to judge closing rate and height to start the flare it also is where you should be looking for floating debris such as dead heads and such.
It makes no sense to look way into the far distance and then get lucky with the correct flare height only to touch down on a dead head and possible die in the resulting crash.
Once you have flared to the level attitude you look forward about three to five hunderd feet...this will give you the correct height judgement and also allow you to see any debris in the water.
There you go...
I seldom go into detail with these issues because flight instruction should be done in an airplane....the internet is a poor communication tool.
(2) Glassy water..
You use the glassy water approach attitude controlling rate of descent with power....and look ahead between three to five hundred feet to check for debris in the water.
