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Old 31st Jul 2015, 23:48
  #577 (permalink)  
Beer Baron
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 618
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I'd say there is about a 0% chance of getting A350's in the near term.

The newly agreed EBA clearly refers to terms and conditions for the 787. Not a "new type" or an A350. The conditions for the existing types (A380/744/A330) have barely changed at all. If the 787 is not ordered then Qantas will have completely missed their opportunity to fix what they saw as a bloated, inefficient contract, for the next 4 and a half years.

If A350's were ordered they would have to re-negotiate with pilots they have outright lied to for the last 6 months which would make it very hard to replicate the same concessions they achieved with the 787 terms. Or it would come in as a "replacement type" for the A330 with all the terms applicable to the A330. That would be a massive win for the pilots and a huge tactical blunder for Qantas.

As such, I think a modest order of 787's this year and a rolling increase each year as the options come up for activation, as the most likely scenario.
Fingers crossed, the 777-9 might even get a look-in towards 2020 if International is still in profit and the remaining jumbos need replacing.
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