Originally Posted by
Flytdeck
Hudson, luck, really? So in your definition, every SUCCESSFUL flight is purely luck? We often discuss the swiss cheese model to envision how we ARRIVE at an accident but the model can be extended to arrive at FATAL accidents. There are several slices of cheese between accident and fatal accident the very last, possibly, being LUCK. I would suggest that airframe design, training, experience, and ability to recover had much more to do with the outcome of these accidents than LUCK.
Reference the Hudson incident, colliding with the geese was a result of risk management policies. North American pilots are all aware of the migration paths of birds. There is inherent risk in operations during certain seasons of the year. Risk managers recognized that collisions were inevitable but that the risk of both engines being rendered inoperative was negligible. Sully found the "negligible" part of the analysis and responded in a manner than all of us can only hope to emulate if we encounter an extreme situation.
We all make errors (anyone who does not acknowledge this should NOT be aircrew). Errors lead to various consequences, some more serious than others. Identifying and mitigating these errors is an important part of our job, even after the commencement of a disastrous sequence of events. Leave trusting in luck to the gamblers and stay away from those carriers that include it as part of their operations policy.
Fly safe.
One of the most polite, succinct posts I've ever read on Pprune.
Thanks!