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Old 13th Jul 2015, 15:42
  #97 (permalink)  
7478ti
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Mercer Island WA
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More data needed to draw useful conclusions and advice

Many of us have unexpectedly encountered hail, or a near brush with hail, or severe turbulence, even with responsible best planning and piloting efforts, and drawing on long experience. The threat of TRW++, and hail, and turbulence remains in global air transport. So without more data and facts, it is still inappropriate to be drawing conclusions about this specific event yet, especially in terms of the crew's potential role, for any conclusions beyond the fact that TRWs, and hail, and severe turbulence are still ever-present threats in global air transport.

Just for example... what radar were they using??? Even some of the latest modern WX radars have known weaknesses that are still being addressed and improved, for both false positives and missed threats. Some have even failed certs until evolved, required explanatory bulletins, or nearly failed certs for some aspects.

What relationship existed, and why did that relationship exist, between the crew and ATS in that FIR or sector, for the expeditious handling of any needed or requested WX avoidance trajectory change ???

What are the consequences of WX deviations on various routes or in various states globally, and how are they reflected in company policies for each state or FIR, and how are variances handled when a pilot deviation request is ignored or denied by ATS, even when repeated or re-emphasized by the crew, or escalating the request by using PAN, or using emergency authority, or even invoking MAYDAY?

What weather data did the crew have, and when, and what was its quality, age, and reliability. Our real time weather data in air carrier ops, especially in some regions and FIRS, and on the flight deck, is still abysmal compared to what we could already have had for decades (even in the US), if we weren't still mired in "PastGen" globally. What role did WX data or lack of WX data play?

So unless and until this is all better identified or clarified, it is still inappropriate to draw any conclusions on this event, except perhaps to be sympathetic to another flight crew and airline caught by encountering a delicate difficult operational situation, while we await more and better data, or the completion of the investigation.
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