Good post Sean,
To me it seems that there is no prospect of the company generating enough profit to perform a re-fleet with new airframes. The seasonality is the biggest brake on the company being able to move forward and the eventual rise in crude oil prices will hammer it's summer profitability given the fleet age.
Short term there is no reason why it won't remain a modestly profitable airline but If I were an investor, I would have questions over how it is going to ensure it will still be trading in 15 years time.
SR