Ryanair only operates twice weekly (rising to three weekly this Winter) on MAN - Warsaw Modlin. So the route from MAN isn't saturated at all, though other nearby regional airports do serve Warsaw as well. The main risk to LOT would be if Ryanair upped frequency on their own service in response to the challenge. They did this afew weeks ago on MAN-DUB when Aer Lingus bizarrely announced their phantom (???) increase on the route. Still no evidence of any extra flights from Aer Lingus.