Good post Equaliser - the people I know in the financial world are betting for a good full year result - perhaps enough to pay down debt and pay a dividend or do a buyback. If management really are talking about new jets as well then it's a fair bet that the result will be healthy enough to cover off on the debt, do some capital management and to make some small moves toward a new type without spooking the market too much. It's all speculation of course.
Assuming this is true then Alan will get a good payout and unfortunately for his task of managing his workforce expectations in the couple of years to come, he'll be getting it in the year that he asked his workforce to take an 18 month pay freeze. This will stick in the craw of many, but the fact is it's his job to right-size this business and he gets paid to do it.
The only question for the Pilots is whether this deal is acceptable or not to them and their own situation - hopefully the majority will even look past their own situation and be prepared to cede something for the good of the majority and those who will follow at QF long haul. This includes all those pilots in SH who don't get a say but may move across later - of course this deal will expire in a few years and a new direction may appear then based on people's experience of this agreement. Nothing is forever.
For mine - the time to fix the LH award is now or there may well never be a chance without damage being done in the meantime to the career opportunities of the mainline group and perhaps their ability to bargain as a unified group - the business is at an inflection point that may never be repeated - i.e. in a year or two the shareholders may not let the management buy more jets. The time is now.