It's the second officers that stand to lose the most as far as I can see. Junior LH CPTs and FOs too but to a much lesser extent.
The very same S/Os stand to gain significantly if the planned 787 expansion comes to fruition. Don't forget that a number of not so junior LH Captains and F/Os have already lost significantly under the current award. They probably stand to gain significantly as well with the planned expansion.
Ask yourself why there is suddenly a rush to get the deal voted up before the August profit announcement?
I wouldn't classify this process as a 'rush'. For years we've griped and moaned when Qantas took 18 months to negotiate a deal. Now we've had the same number of meetings over a 3 month period and again we're complaining about it being 'rushed'? Their time frame happens to suit our time frame also. Of the negotiators I've spoken to, none of them felt 'rushed'. Nathan hasn't felt 'rushed' although he's acknowledged the company's time frame. I suspect the company has been the main people feeling the time pressure of it all.
The reason for them feeling the pinch? Prior to the profit announcement there is a board meeting. At that board meeting the business case for a significant expansion of the business will be put forward. Part of that business case requires 'certainty' around the terms and conditions paid to those who operate the aeroplane. No EA signed off, no business case for the board, no decision on expansion and that probably has an impact on what Qantas can say to Boeing about when the aeroplanes are scheduled to start arriving.
I hope Qantas announces a billion plus dollar profit and retires an extra billion in debt- a scenario I see as likely. We all know fuel will be a big part of it but I don't care what AJ's bonus is as long as he announces an expansion of the business.