Tuner 2.
You say that QF international is barely making any money with fuel at these prices......
That is totally incorrect. Fuel has dropped by more than 50%.
Qantas have unwound the hedging program so will not see the 90% plus benefit of this UNTIL the Second Half of the financial year.
Read any statements from Qantas media or the market, and that is confirmed to be a minimum of $400 million dollar upside for Qantas.
Internationals fuel cost was at least $2.6 billion a year or so ago. If fuel has dropped by at least 50% and we participate in 90-100% of the fall it's a big upside.
Here is the info copied below from a Citigroup report based on factual market statements from Alan Joyce and Gareth Evans
"The fall in the fuel price will kick in to a much greater extent in this period. The total decline in the cost of fuel in the first half was $91 million of which $33 million was the fall in price and the remainder was efficiency gains (ie using less fuel). In the second half the fuel tailwind is potentially cyclonic and should - based on what Alan Joyce said on Thursday - provide a net gain of between $400 million and $500 million".
"The gain from the removal of the carbon tax which was $59 million in the first half should be repeated in the second half".
"The restructuring /cost cutting program that delivered the lions share of the earnings growth in the December half (of $374 million) will continue as a major contributor in the current six months and should kick in another $300 million".
"The $208 million reduction in depreciation (thanks to the $2.6 billion of fleet writedowns taken last year) should also feature in the latest half year result".
"The company often talks in terms of performance headwinds and tailwinds. In the current half the tailwinds have it".
"Add it all up and it's reasonable to predict that Qantas will make the magic billion, particularly if all its operations remain in profit as they did in the first half".
But Tuner I'm sure you know more than Gareth has told analysts???
Or do you think the CFO of an ASX 100 Company has lied to the market and breached ASIC laws?