The failure to market the new routes suggests management issues that can't just be blamed on the debt.
Anyway, I'm a bit more confident about Cardiff's ability to withstand it than Prague, for a few reasons
- The route is going to get a nice boost from the rugby world cup
- Munster will have at least 4 matches in South Wales, while 2 Welsh teams are likely to play in Cork next season
- Having seen what Premier League fixtures do on the Newcastle route, the presence of Swansea in the Premier League will add some demand.
- There are strong historical links between Cork and South Wales. We are currently a point where for the first time in centuries there is neither an air or sea route between Cork and South Wales, so something was likely to resume.
- Demand from Cardiff will be stronger than from Prague
- Aside from demand, it's easy for an airline to schedule in a quick hop between the two cities if there is a bit of spare time in their schedules.
The main disadvantage will be the fact that demand will be very localized to Cork and Kerry. Even from Waterford, it's probably as handy to use the sail-rail option as it is to get to Cork for a flight. There's also an open question on Flybe's long-term commitment to Cardiff.