"Do you honestly believe that the one deciding factor in getting a new type rests solely on Flight Crew pay? "
Yes, it will be one of several deciding factors. They already have their cabin crew cost base sorted since the early 2000s with F/As on $40k base with their massive B scale. Talk to someone who has worked in strategy/networks (as opposed to just group thinking with fellow pilots) at a large airline and ask them about route profitability. I know pilots don't like to entertain the fact their terms and conditions (=cost base) influence routes opening and closing but the FACT is that they can and do. Especially the long 'tripe time' routes.
"The FACT is that tech crew costs are about 1-4% max of the overall cost base."
That's a big range you've given there. What's your source? Let's see your maths. When was the last time tech crew costs were 1% of the overall cost base? 1920? On individual route analysis the pilots costs can be over 10% - massive by world standards.
"Qantas will make a billion dollars this year WITH the LH award. "
The Qantas Group will, yes, and by logical extension it would make more with a lower cost base. But what about Qantas international - the entity that needs to justify a $billion+ (or whatever) worth of 787s? Pilots don't get to decide what planes are bought.
"Do you think Alan Joyce and the executive will give up pay, share options to get a new type? How about the other unions? Groundstaff, etc? "
Other unions now have casuals/part timers/B and C scales in just about every single other employee group. Joyce took a 30% pay cut in fixed salary and you said yourself that '5000 back office jobs removed helps'. That's where the other groups have copped it.
"Someone showed me the other day on the ASX that Alan has been granted $40 MILLION in Qantas options, in addition to his pay." Even if this is correct (again let's see your maths), you need to be less fixated on evil bonuses and more focused on reality and how airlines make decisions to buy airplanes or not.