AHIA Research Project. (Our thanks to Airwaves - June 2015)
Are current pilot graduates enough to sustain our industry next year?
How do we estimate the number of new pilots needed to keep the industry ticking over during 2015-2016. What is the method of calculation which can be used to gauge investment needed if growth returns to the helicopter industry? Is there enough work to keep flying instructors gainfully employed when growth stalls, as is the situation today?
Since 30 June 2014 the CASA Aircraft Register showed an increase of only fifteen helicopter registrations over sixteen months, or an annual growth rate of less than 1%. Prior to June 2014 the industry’s long term growth rate was around 7% each year, then considered as a good result.
To find the answers, CASA’s Annual Report 2013-2014 is a very useful tool. On 30 June 2104 there were 3,308 pilots consisting of 845 ATPL; 1,667 CPL and 802 PPL licenses. The registered helicopters were then 2,104 helicopters.
This shows 1.5 licenses for every helicopter. This calculation does not consider those who have left the industry due age, accident, death or change of career and replaced by new comers.
To calculate the output from flying schools during 2015-2016, assuming fleet size remains unchanged (as it is now), the CASA report at 30 June 2014 may have the answer. For example, the number of ATPL is 845. On average 72 new licenses were issued each year over five years. When adjusted down for the growth of then of 7% per year, we need 67 new ATPL licenses per year.
Of particular interest to flying schools is the number of CPL graduates needed to sustain 1,667 licenses. Allowing for the 7% adjustment shown above, we need 250 per year. This shows annual loss rate of ATPL folks is 8% and CPL 15% which is the reverse of what is expected from the older ATPL pilot group.
A closer look at the 802 private pilot figures shows we need 110 new licence holders each year to maintain the status quo. In fact, PPL and CPL loss rates are almost identical, an interesting coincidence?
If the number of licenses remains unchanged, during 2015-2016, schools have to produce about 67 ATPL, 250 CPL and 110 PPL graduates. Assuming there are 25 or so active schools, their output would be at least ten CPL students for each school. If they are a Part 141 school then this is barely enough for work for two instructors and their CFI.
The AHIA is very concerned CASA may have not issued any ATPL licenses since September 2014. According to CASA sources, this situation may continue for a year or so. As you read this we estimate we are now 134 under the required number. But what about the large number of ME IFR aeromedical helicopters soon heading our way and the crews needed for the military civil training programme – Australian ATPL pilots may be in short supply.
So where do they come from? Overseas crewmembers on 457 Visas? And what happens to our ATPL trainers? Do they close their doors?
Septics are encouraged to look in detail at CASA's Flight Examiners Handbook version 1.2 of Mar '15 and associated Form 61-FEA. Look at currency requirements for Flight Examiner Ratings. In particular, how will CASA staff and other now ATOs maintain their currency? Have a peek at the Low Level Rating Flight Test Endorsement. The Handbook and Form run to around 240 pages.
Feedback from those managing training schools is most welcome. We need to update this thread; in this way we can see what has to be done as our work with CASA continues.
AHIA Secretary