So something that should have been done years ago, is at a stage where two teams are standing around a big table basically looking at a fag packet sketch. How long will these phases now take, then building work. Patience is the watchword, lack of planning is the fact.
So well ahead of the LHR third rwy then.
Aer Lingus and IAG
So - what impact do posters think the swallowing of Aer Lingus by IAG will have on MAN and the UK regions ? Yes it's still subject to some rubber stamps but with the Irish Govt now on side it's essentially a done deal.
Is it all about the LHR slots, or is there a lot more at play here ? Apparently part of the deal to gain the Irish Government's approval is that EI (or IAG) will open another four North American routes from DUB next year. The build up of DUB capacity from MAN, BHX and other UK points next winter appears well timed.
It’s not about LHR slots, BA has more than it can handle with the takeover and closing of BD, hence the increase in its shorthaul holiday routes from there.
AFAIK, this is because of a current shortage of suitable aircraft which, once resolved, should see the commencment of new longhaul routes.
Because of the shortage of rwy capacity at LHR, more UK airports are connected to AMS and DUB than to LHR, and consequently, EI and KL take a great deal of transfer pax that, given sufficient LHR rwy capacity and therefore sufficient links to smaller UK airports, could be BA’s.
Buying EI gives IAG an opportunity to grab some of this transfer traffic. Equally important, it prevents another carrier from doing so.
Meanwhile long awaited plans for redeveloping the terminals at MAN continue to inch along. Hmmm...
Can’t comment on the other terminals, but MAN-3 does need some attention, and soon.
I would expect BA to reduce frequency between LHR and several of the UK regions to free up slots and EI to fill the gap.
That actually doesn’t make sense: if EI fills the gap if BA reduces frequencies on its UK domestic routes then no (IAG) slots are freed up.
The deal with the Irish Government requires IAG to use its EI LHR slots for DUB, SNN and ORK. Only BHD could be freed up for this, but there's no need and no point.
EI are only an alternative on the North Atlantic though, BA will still want PAX heading east. I would also expect BA to reduce or drop LHR-DUB, freeing up slots for expansion to China, which is the next big nut to crack for them.
BA doesn’t need more slots at LHR (see above), so there's no need to reduce frequencies on LHR-DUB. The only consolidation may occur where BA and EI have flights leaving at the same time or within minutes of each other. Seat availibility could be maintained by the use of larger aircraft (e.g. a shorthaul BA B767 or an EI A330).
North America is a huge market for IAG and pre-clearance at DUB could be attractive to pax. Having options at LHR (BA) and at DUB (EI) has to be a good business proposition for IAG.
Expansion in China can only happen when BA has the suitable aircraft (see above).
rumours elsewhere that Air India are about to drop BHX and open at MAN. We've heard about them looking at MAN before but this is the first I've heard of it being a replacement to BHX.
That would be surprising, there’s probably more traffic between BHX and ATQ/DEL than between MAN and ATQ/DEL, and the route is doing well enough to become daily, despite being a lowish yield VFR route.
There’s no suggestion of flights between BHX or MAN and BOM (business route).
So maybe BHX
and MAN, can’t see MAN instead of BHX.
Air India are in Star Alliance so could be looking for connections on United, TAP and SAS via MAN? Other connections are feasible but backwards such as on Lufthansa. I wonder if Flybe are also offering connections via their MAN hub?
For connecting pax, AI could use the Star Alliance hub at LHR-2, it's much bigger.