As somebody else has pointed out, we're obviously not as short as we think we are.
I'm 300 or so above mid-seniority, and have moved up approx 80 places since January 2014. To me, slightly more than 6 captains a month is a lot, but maybe not in the big scheme of things.
Take a minute or two to look at those guys who are on reserve this month. If they were flying maximum hours then this would indicate a shortage, but they're not. I have no idea about open flying but on a day to day perusal, there are always between 40 and 60 captains on reserve, and a lot of them have only done a couple to trips to date.
In five years as a captain I've averaged 835 block hours per year. My block time has been pretty much the same since I started as a captain. I am busier because as the 380 takes more and more of the ULR flying, my hours are kept up by turn arounds, hence the reduction in off days.
It's the FOs who are now feeling the pinch and are doing most of the chirping here and in the cockpit. Ask any FO who has upgraded in the last year or so and he'll confirm that he no longer has the same lifestyle that he once had. We've always been short of captains, and only recently have we become short of FOs.
I believe the company is calling our collective bluff. They hear endless threats of resignations but they never fully materialise. So they decide to honour our contract with a step then sit back and observe. If pilots leave en masse there may be another pay review and, if not, management will get a another pat on the back for reading the situation correctly.
Blue side up.
Last edited by nakbin330; 27th May 2015 at 11:00.