Originally Posted by
Biggus
Archimedes,
In response to your posts 8 and 13 on this thread, back in December 2014 I wrote the following:
Archimedes,
Fine - and I'm glad I didn't hack you off - I'll try and remember to come back to this thread in May 2015 and point out that your psephology was wrong in this case (in terms of predicting the number SNP MPs elected).
So here I am, to point out that, as I predicted, your psephology was wrong in terms of predicting the number of seats the SNP would win - but then first hand experience of the situation seems to count for nothing!!
Trying to find where this thread was, that's where!
I did, in my defence include (emphasis in original) the view
It's not a case of saying that the SNP won't be a significant factor, merely that historical trends in elections suggest that their chances are not as great as some suggest assuming that the current polling figures remain the same.
And they didn't stay the same; by about February of this year, the historical trend pattern was clearly
not going to apply in the case of Scotland and somewhere (was it on Arrse or somewhere else - I forget), I can be found stating that this was one of those moments Jim Callaghan had described as a 'sea change' that occurs every thirty years. And expressing mystification that I couldn't find my original post about this on that forum. Which was because it was actually here on Pprune.
I also refer you to the following:
Originally Posted by
Archimedes
Originally Posted by
Biggus
Archimedes,
Fine - and I'm glad I didn't hack you off - I'll try and remember to come back to this thread in May 2015 and point out that your psephology was wrong in this case (in terms of predicting the number SNP MPs elected).
Not if I get here first....
(It
can be wrong, but needs politicians to make sure that it is, rather than apparently sitting back and believing the raw poll data.)
You got here first, though.