MANCHESTER 1

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Thomas Cook SIX Based A330-200's

Outstanding news from Thomas Cook. Whilst the headlines will understandably focus on Los Angeles and Boston, we should not overlook the increases on TCX's other MAN-USA routes. At peak we are looking at 25 departures per week to the USA alone (and TCX are big players to the Caribbean as well). I am taking "daily to Orlando" as meaning 7 departures per week, but do they actually plan two flights on certain days? So the base-case would be MCO 7, LAS 6, JFK 6, MIA 2, BOS 2, LAX 2. Each operated by one of SIX 322-seat A330-200's based at MAN. 25 departures per week implies 8050 return seats weekly to the USA by TCX. Obviously, this programme will reduce markedly in low-season ... but these days that is also true of AAL / UAL and the rest.

For perspective, let's recall that the on-again / off-again service to Beijing proposed by Hainan Airlines is for 4 departures per week by lower-capacity A332's. Yes, Beijing is a prestige destination which features highly on many wishlists ... but isn't that also true of Los Angeles? Those other five US cities aren't bad either!

American Airlines' Summer 2015 programme features 21 departures per week from MAN [14 x B763, 7 x A332]. This may change by Summer 2016 - we don't know yet - but if not, the Thomas Cook MAN-USA programme will significantly exceed that offered by AAL. United Airlines [14 x B752] is trailing way behind. Only the Virgin / Delta partnership is in the same ballpark as Thomas Cook.

I note j636's comment that BOS needs to be at least 4x weekly to work. That reflects the needs of the business traveller. But Thomas Cook is a leisure-focused operation. They know their core-market - vacationers - and set out their wares to suit. I'm sure that TCX will be delighted if business travellers choose to book seats with them, but leisure travellers will make or break the route. Boston actually offers great short-break potential as well as being a great base for New England fly-drives and the VFR market. Those customers can work around two departure choices per week in a way the business traveller cannot.

Thomas Cook and Thomson Airways are the only two MAN-USA carriers which don't have at least some vested interest in filling surplus Y-capacity dumped at LHR as a by-product of offering high frequency departures aimed at business travellers in London. This TCX move will make a noticeable dent in the easy pickings hoovered up from the North to this end. AAL/BAW and UAL may be uninterested in making a real effort to retain leisure market-share originating in this region (including the LHR feed), but if they do want to hang in they're going to have to compete. The Virgin / Delta partnership already addresses MAN's leisure-heavy market very well, so they are well-placed to compete with Thomas Cook's programme. Thomson appears content to maintain it's Florida niche which should not present a problem.

The plans for increased interlining onto TCX's long-haul programme is also notable with SAS and DLH specified in the MEN report. We have FlyBe in the mix too. This ties in nicely with Thomas Cook's proposed long-haul hub concept which we first read about two to three years ago but which had gone very quiet. I wonder if this also means that connecting eastbound flows to destinations in the Indian Ocean etc. will be similarly encouraged over Frankfurt?

Whilst some of us have waited patiently for a 'saviour' such as Norwegian or Ryanair long-haul to deliver us from the "fill-the-back-end-ex-LHR" cartel, Thomas Cook has quietly stepped forward and delivered. Congratulations TCX/MAG and good luck with the new services.

EDIT: I note that LAX_LHR has confirmed TCX's MAN-MCO frequency as 8 departures per week. Based on this, TCX will be offering 26 departures weekly on MAN-USA routes representing 8372 return seats. As our American friends would say: "AWESOME!!!"