Originally Posted by
Not_a_boffin
Back in the 90s I remember a defence study which attempted to look at the future in 2015. It was a NATO event and although I haven't dug out the material in years, the one thing it did suggest was that mass movement of refugees / displaced persons / economic migrants from Africa to Europe was going to be a major feature.
It was briefed as the major political threat to the NATO Southern Region:
It came as a package:
Water shortages/water rights conflicts
Food scarcity
Population expansion
Uncontrolled migration
I used to give that brief to visitors at our HQ. The basics of brief was crafted from NATO HQ and passed down to the subordinate commands.
It was the "shared truth" of sixteen nations.
That the US would start another ruckus in Iraq or elsewhere was not part of the strategic brief, but this was the 90's. I'd be interested to see what the standard brief is now in various NATO HQ's.