Surplus
Keg,
QF may not be '400 overstocked', but the idea that the surplus is 'minimal' is total bullsh*t.
Shorthaul- Beer coaster numbers of 60 A/C and 6 crew per A/C gives 360 crew or 720 pilots. Those guys are 10 hours (at least) short every month. That's 7200 hours available per month. Easily 100 guys over on the 737.
Longhaul- Bit harder to get a handle on but divisors aren't high and there's still demotion training going on. I can easily see 100 guys too many.
LWOP- How many? I recall a memo, blog, Friday update, something, saying there were over 250 gone. That was a while ago and I'm sure we've had more go, but if we take that as the number, let's say 50% come back that's over 100 guys.
Total surplus is at least, at least, 300.
Retirements- I remember you posting you had worked out on bidbook about 50 guys a year hitting 65. How many will extend? Let's say none do. 200 guys will go in the next four years. Nice.
787- How many and when. Million $$ question.
The surplus is real and significant- regardless of what some management w*nker writes in his blog, memo, email, smoke-signal. QF won't be 'right-sized' in pilot terms until 2017 or 2018 at the earliest and that's only if the 787 becomes a reality. Remember, you read it here first: QF to hire pilots........ in 2019. Get your yr 12 maths and physics done now kiddies!!!!