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Old 1st Apr 2015, 15:09
  #2850 (permalink)  
DespairingTraveller
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Swansea
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@ChissayLuke, what is it you actually want to be done?

It's very easy after an event like this to rail against the participants and the authorities and say, "This is dreadful, it shouldn't have happened. Somebody's to blame, something must be done."

I doubt if anyone would argue with the general sentiment. The real issue is "What should be done?" And to arrive at an answer to that question, you have to determine exactly what did happen, why it happened, whether anything could have been done to prevent it, and, if so, what. Then, crucially, whether that proposed preventative action would actually increase total risk through some unwanted consequence.

Which is why leaping to conclusions and taking actions based on early reports and hysterical newspaper headlines is so, so dangerous.

For example, suppose someone issued a binding directive that no-one with a depressive episode on their medical record could fly henceforth. What are you going to do in due course when several hundred, perhaps several thousand, existing pilots cannot turn up for work and fly aircraft, because they suffered depression sometime in the past, even if they have now been treated and recovered?

Basically, you have only a few choices. Promote pilots from further down the food chain and fly with them; increase the allowed flying hours of remaining crew to cover the shortfall; or cancel the flights.

The practicality and net safety consequence of the first two is not clear and would require evaluation, but could easily be negative. The third one almost certainly increases the passengers' total risk of accidental death. It is well documented that road fatalities in the US rose substantially in the aftermath of 9/11 because people were afraid of flying so drove, and that the increase outweighed any conceivable consequence of further terrorist action had it occurred (which, of course, it didn't).

Carrying on as though this incident never occurred and never thinking about it again is not an option, and I seriously doubt that the relevant authorities will do that. Determining what appropriate action to take is not so straightforward and requires careful, informed consideration.

Last edited by DespairingTraveller; 1st Apr 2015 at 15:25.
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