So, it is possible the door jammed and the pilot WAS incap. Seems unlikely but how often is it the confluence of events not one that is responsible for this type of thing.
Captain Kremin in two posts, 25/03 @ 0739 and 25/03 @ 19h20 (pp 27 & 41 at the moment) prior to today's announcement presented an argument based a set of known facts which which would not support the incapacitation theory.