aterpster
The 5% excursion may occur on the first RNP AR approach or it may not occur until the 100,000 approach. And this probability is for the entire fleet (world-wide) of RNP AR aircraft, not any given aircraft.
You obviously don't know what a probability is.
Tell you what - get one of those 20-sided dice that they have in modern board games. Now throw it 100,000 times, and see how often your chosen number comes up. See the problem now?