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Old 8th Mar 2015, 14:41
  #11674 (permalink)  
Ian W
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Florida and wherever my laptop is
Posts: 1,325
Originally Posted by RetiredF4 View Post
You may have missed the point, I'm not talking about spoofing the data nor assuming that the datas have been spoofed. Whoever was part of the disappearance of Mh370 knew nothing about those data as the rest of the world didn't know either.

All I'am saying is, that the southern arc is one interpretation of the data, even a highly probable one, but it is not an exclusive one as others have stated. The conclusion for the southern arc as the most probable track relies heavily on the assumption of near constant track, near constant altitude and near constant speed, simplified on a flight to a preset target in the south flown by autopilot.
A flight at a constant speed South on autopilot fits the INMARSAT data. Data which as you say probably nobody in the world knew was available.

The alternatives, orbits crossing the distance ring (which you did not know about) at precisely the right time at precisely the right velocity (ground speed/track/climb corrected for winds) to look like an aircraft that was on a consistent southerly heading. Yes - it is possible. I challenge anyone to do it.

The problem I see is not overtly modeling all the other 'ideas' and showing where they fall down. If instead of repeatedly reassessing the one path, someone had set up a relatively straight forward computer model to vary the assumptions made within their possible limits and falsify (disprove) these alternate ideas. There might be a small family of possible tracks that would work. However, looking at the 'search area' which is very imprecise, I think that it may have been defined by an approach of varying the assumptions within their feasible limits, plus uncertainty due to error.

I have a feeling we will eventually find out.
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