Official: Third world aid spending to outstrip defence budget within 15 years
Fury as House of Commons library finds Government likely to be spending £27.1 billion on defence in 2030/31, against £28.3billion on aid
Spending on third world aid is on course to be greater than the defence budget within 15 years, according to official research, The Daily Telegraph can disclose. The forecast from the House of Commons library show at current rates Britain’s international development budget will exceed military spending by 2030/31.
Separately scores of Conservative MPs are likely to try to force the Government to commit to spending two per cent of the nation’s income on defence spending after 2015/16. A Commons debate on the commitment, followed by a vote of MPs, has been provisionally set for Thursday next week, just a fortnight before Parliament breaks for the election.
The news came after David Cameron, the Prime Minister, was forced to defend military spending after the head of the US army said he was “very concerned” about cuts.Mr Cameron said it was “very clear” that he does not want to see further reductions in Britain’s armed forces. He added: “In terms of spending, the promise we have made is that the equipment budget, which is £160 billion over the next decade, that will grow by one per cent in real terms in each year of the next parliament."
The House of Commons library was asked “for an analysis of when, on current trends, International Development expenditure might be expected to overtake Defence spending”. It found that, based on Treasury figures, defence spending had fallen by 1.8 per cent per year over the past five years to £35.5 billion, while international development expenditure had risen to £8.4 billion. It added: “Assuming that these rates of change continue unaltered, International Development spending would be higher than Defence spending in the 2030/31 financial year.”
The library said that the Government was likely to be spending £27.1 billion on defence spending against international development spending £28.3billion in 2030/31, not allowing for inflation. Conservative MPs and former defence ministers seized on the figures as further evidence that the Government should commit to spending two per cent of national income on defence after 2016.
John Baron said: “The fact that DFID spending could one day match defence spending illustrates the folly of ring-fencing departmental budgets. “We should never forget that the first duty of Government remains the defence of the realm. In a world where many countries not necessarily friendly to the west are re-arming and becoming more assertive, we should instead be spending more on our Armed Forces.” Liam Fox, a former Defence secretary, said: “There is no doubt that we need to understand that so-called soft power, is no substitute for the ability to deter threats in a hard power world”.
Rory Stewart MP, the chairman of the defence select committee, said the defence budget should be three times the aid budget. He said: It would be good to tie that relationship in so as the economy grew, defence spending would grow. The strong consensus across the party is in favour of two per cent spending of GDP on defence – partly because of the symbolic importance of the commitment and leadership Britain showed in Nato.”
Next week’s motion is likely to see scores of Tory MPs vote in favour of the next Government committing to spending 2 per cent of the UK’s GDP on defence after 2015/16.
Sir Peter Luff, a former Coalition defence minister, pointed out that in 1985 the UK spent the same amount in cash on defence, health, and education. “Thirty years later we spend three times as much on heath as on defence and twice as much on education,” he said. “To continue the trend of cuts, cuts and more cuts would be to betray the first duty of the state – to keep its citizens safe. When the world faces such deep peril it is disappointing that the case needs even to be made.”